Commercial Real Estate Recap: Triangle, NC – First Half of 2025
Introduction: A Mid-Year Pulse on the Triangle CRE Market
The first half of 2025 has been dynamic for the Triangle’s commercial real estate market, with notable shifts across office, industrial, and retail sectors. From Raleigh to Durham to Chapel Hill, economic momentum, shifting workforce patterns, and development activity continue to shape opportunities for investors, tenants, and property owners alike.
Here’s a breakdown of key trends, performance metrics, and takeaways to help you make informed decisions for the second half of the year.
Office Market: Stabilizing, But Still in Transition
After years of remote and hybrid work reshaping demand, the Triangle’s office market began to show signs of stabilization in early 2025.
Vacancy rates held steady around 13–14%, with Class A spaces in Durham and Raleigh’s urban cores performing slightly better.
Flight to quality remained a strong trend, with tenants seeking move-in-ready, amenity-rich spaces.
Leasing velocity picked up compared to 2024, particularly among law firms, tech start-ups, and professional services firms.
Key Insight: Smaller footprints, flexible lease terms, and upgraded interiors are now essential for attracting quality tenants.
Industrial Market: Demand Outpaces Supply
The industrial sector remains the Triangle’s strongest performer in H1 2025.
Vacancy dipped below 3.5%, especially in key submarkets like Research Triangle Park, Garner, and Apex.
Demand continues from logistics, biotech, and advanced manufacturing.
Rents have increased year-over-year by nearly 8–10%, driven by limited inventory and rising construction costs.
New Developments: Several million square feet are under construction across Wake and Durham counties, though many projects are already pre-leased.
Key Insight: Land constraints near the urban core are pushing developers and users further out toward I-40 and I-85 corridors.
Retail Market: Local Concepts Thrive, National Chains Recalibrate
Retail in the Triangle has remained surprisingly resilient, especially in high-foot-traffic corridors and mixed-use developments.
Vacancy hovers around 5.5%, aided by steady population growth and a strong local economy.
Local restaurants, fitness concepts, and boutique retailers continue to backfill second-generation space.
Experiential and service-based retail are outpacing traditional big-box formats.
Key Submarkets: Southpoint in Durham, Downtown Cary, and North Hills in Raleigh all saw notable leasing activity.
Key Insight: Mixed-use, lifestyle-focused centers are attracting consistent tenant and consumer interest—offering opportunity for owners and investors.
Investment & Development: Capital Still Flowing, Selectively
While interest rates have kept some investors on the sidelines, the Triangle remains a target for institutional and regional capital due to its:
Strong job growth
Tech and life sciences ecosystem
High quality of life
Multifamily and industrial projects are still leading the way in new development pipelines, with adaptive reuse projects gaining traction in urban cores.
Key Insight: Value-add and stabilized assets with in-place cash flow are commanding strong interest, especially in off-market opportunities.
What This Means for You
Whether you’re a business owner looking for space, an owner planning to sell, or an investor eyeing expansion, the Triangle continues to offer a unique mix of resilience, growth, and diversification.
The key is having the right insights and representation to capitalize on market shifts.
Looking Ahead: Second Half 2025 Outlook
Office: Expect more sublease absorption and shorter lease terms.
Industrial: Supply will remain tight—early site control is critical.
Retail: Focus will stay on experience, location, and community integration.
Investments: Look for off-market opportunities as cap rates adjust.
Let’s Talk Triangle Commercial Real Estate
Looking to buy, lease, sell, or invest in commercial property in the Triangle? With 30+ years of local experience, we know how to navigate the nuance of this market—so you don’t have to.
📞 Contact us today for a custom market brief or property evaluation.